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Iowa is just the start of it...

IntroductionIn the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, the 2024 US election is a focal point that commands attention not just domestically, but internationally. As the election gears up with the Iowa caucus, the world watches closely, aware of the far-reaching implications of this political event.Scheduled for November, the 2024 election is already making headlines. Incumbent President Joe Biden's decision to run again places the spotlight on the Republican party, particularly on Donald Trump, a figure who continues to polarise the American political scene.Former President Trump has been the presumptive Republican nominee since leaving the White House in January 2021. His candidacy is mired in controversies ranging from his alleged role in the 2020 election fiasco, ongoing legal battles within the Trump Empire, and a potential national security breach. The legality of his candidacy is under scrutiny in states like Colorado and Maine, with the Supreme Court's decision eagerly awaited. While it seems improbable that these challenges will derail his campaign, they add a layer of uncertainty to the election.What is already clear, however, is that the Trump of 2024 differs markedly from his 2016 persona. Once known for his commanding presence and media-savvy tactics, the 77-year-old Trump now appears less dynamic, his ability to shock somewhat diminished. Facing a relatively weak field of opponents – two Governors and a lesser-known businessman – his path to nomination seems more procedural than competitive. This is having an impact. The Great Showman appears lacklustre at rallies and hasn’t yet got out of first gear. Trump's primary challenge lies in maintaining his Republican base, a task made difficult by his track record. As President he oversaw the loss of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms, followed by the Senate, House, and Presidency in 2020. There's a growing belief that he's more likely losing support than gaining it across the country. Additionally, Trump needs to counteract the momentum of the Biden administration, which boasts a strong electoral record from 2020, particularly with the Infrastructure and Inflation Act.Indeed, President Biden, confident in his electoral prowess having won 11 national elections since 1970, faces the challenge of combating voter apathy. The Democratic base, highly motivated in 2020 to oust Trump, might not exhibit the same urgency now. The Democrats are expected to focus on the potential chaos and democratic erosion a second Trump presidency could entail but early indications are that the public aren’t yet buying it. The good news for Biden is that he isn’t someone who has to sell himself to the voters. America knows Joe. It’s whether they are prepared to grant the oldest presidential candidate in history, four more years and make him a lame duck from day one of his second term. The outcome of the US presidential election has significant implications for the UK and international business sectors, particularly in these key areas:1. US-China Relations: Both Trump and Biden view China as a major global competitor. The US's approach to China will heavily influence international relations and trade dynamics, directly impacting UK foreign policy and economic interests. China has clearly been supportive of Iran and Russia in recent years, which is contrary to the foreign policy position of the West. Diplomacy, rather than inflammatory rhetoric is key to deescalating conflict with China in the decade ahead.2. Energy and Climate Policy: Biden's administration has championed climate action, a stark contrast to Trump's pro-fossil fuel stance. The election outcome will significantly affect global climate initiatives and energy markets, influencing the UK's environmental and energy policies. Think about Britain’s dependency on Russian energy and the move by all UK political parties towards greater British energy independence. It will require the cooperation and trading of ideas between allies and the UK will look to the US for support in this field. 3. International Cooperation: Biden's engagement with international institutions represents a departure from Trump's "America First" approach. The US's stance on international cooperation under the next administration will shape the UK's foreign policy strategies, especially in addressing global challenges. Consider too how the UK and US were able to work together in recent days to combat attacks on UK naval and commercial ships in the Red Sea, through a coordinated attack on Yemen’s military infrastructure. Would a British PM feel as comfortable engaging in military operations with a Trump White House where tactics, strategy and fall out is likely to be conducted on Twitter from Trump’s bedroom. 4. Trade and Economic Policies: The US's trade and economic policies will be crucial for the UK, particularly in the post-Brexit era. The election could influence global trade relations, impacting the UK's position in international markets.\


5. NATO and Ukraine: It is no secret that Trump is more closely aligned with Vladimir Putin’s view of NATO than President Biden’s and Rishi Sunak’s. A Trump victory would spell the end of military and financial support for Ukraine in their war with Russia. This could have devastating consequences for the eastern bloc of Europe. With Ukraine exposed, Russia emboldened and America departing the playing field, countries such as Georgia and Poland will be vulnerable to further Russian aggression.

So, the 2024 US Presidential election is more than a domestic political contest; it's a pivotal event with global repercussions. Its influence extends far beyond American borders, affecting international relations, trade policies, and environmental strategies worldwide. As the UK prepares for its own general election, the outcomes of the US election will undoubtedly resonate on both sides of the Atlantic.


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